Nonstationary Characteristics of Precipitation and Flood Response Under Changing Environment in Taihu Basin, China

Change of the environment, namely climate change and human activities, is influencing hydrological cycles globally. Nonstationary changes have been widely detected in precipitation series, which has significantly increased flood risk various areas. Taking Taihu Basin as typical study area, nonstationary characteristics are analyzed through Mann-Kendall trend test, Pettitt abrupt Sen’s slope estimator Seasonality Index this study. Spatial distributed daily data during 1979–2017 used. An 1D-2D coupling hydrodynamic model built by MIKE Zero to simulate under nonstationarity precipitation. According results statistical analysis, shows increasing trends temporal spatial scales. Especially, torrential rain extreme precipitation, main cause disasters basin, especially highly urbanized areas such Shanghai city. simulation results, increase high correlation with The indicate a great impact urbanization on regional risk, must be well solved social economic sustainable development.